Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Post Fed Announcement - EUR/USD

Dollar being sold after fed announcement of "no change" to interest rate policy. As a result, EUR/USD being bought up, but not so much as to change the longer trends... just a matter of how we get to the end of this corrective rally.

The movement from yesterdays lows looks impulsive in form. A new short term count has been added that would give us a flat for (c) of wave 4. Even if wave 4 is not over, we should see a correction since we are close to completing 5 waves up.

UPDATE: Something isnt sitting right with me on the details of this count. A triangle shouldnt be followed by a flat in a correction unless it is a combination corrective structure. The alternate on the next chart depicts an WXY structure... a double combo, with the X being either a triangle or a zigzag. Implication is that the entire structure could be the (a) portion of the corrective wave, which would mean a (b) and (c) structure still ahead. If the triangle X is correct, we are nearing the end of (a) since triangles always preceed the final move in a pattern.

The difficulty in corrections is how many options there are relative to an impulsive move. It is always a challenge to know exactly which pattern is playing out in real time. The most important takeaway for me during these times is that I do the research to have confidence that we are in a corrective pattern, and to that end confidence is pretty high at this point due to the nature of overlapping waves since last months lows.

The dollar index looks to be completing its near term corrective pattern, so we will have to wait and see if it turns into a more complex structure or begins a next leg down shortly.


  1. Nice count! I think you are right on :) Thanks!

  2. Thanks Binve. Having thought about it, I think the above scenario is better labeled as a wxy... a double. If "c" is a flat rather than an impulse, then "a" would have to be a zig zag, which does fit.

    This would make the "x" a triangle. Not sure what the rules are about an "x" being a triangle, but I havent ever seen one.

    Going to update the counts in a second as well as an alternate, more bullish short term option.


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