Thursday, March 18, 2010

EUR/USD Elliott Counts

My post with the proposed counts from Tuesday is right on track.

Here's Tuesday's count...
Link to post:

It appears that wave y of 4 ended with a flat out of a triangle x pattern. We have completed, or should be close to completing wave 1 of 5 (perhaps another stab below this mornings low to complete), and are due for a rally. First target is near 1.3675 - 1.3697  if the current low holds (or lower if we get another stab). This area represents the important levels.

1) The area of the previous fourth wave (common retracement area for 2nd waves)
2) Fibonacci zone
3) Lower trend channel support that has held the lows (was cleanly broken this morning) throughout wave 4 crosses through that area over the next day or so. It is common for the market to retrace up to the underside of this broken channel and give it a kiss before resuming its trend.

It may retrace higher as wave 2's can retrace up to 100% of the previous decline and still be valid from an Elliott perspective. If we were to retrace a significant percentage though (above 61.8%), I would become skeptical of the count I am following depending on the form of the rally (impulsive or corrective).

An opportunity to place short position with minimal risk is approaching if the rebound is in corrective 3 wave form. I intend to be ready.

Here's the count. It would take a break of the high at 1.3820 to change this view.

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