Friday, March 19, 2010

Clear impulse waves and Greece.

Not a surprise that Greece is not out of the woods. I am beginning to wonder if Greece may begin a domino effect... Spain, Portugal... who"s next? The European union is being rattled to the core of its foundation with this one.

The EUR/USD decline has extended with another stab to new lows overnight after consolidating most of the day yesterday in a triangle formation. As you might know, triangles are important structures in Elliott wave analysis as the precede a final move in a series. If it is a triangle, we could be due for a partial retracement rebound of the impulsive move from recent highs.

Notice again how well the impulse wave is adhering to the fibonacci fan. It is likely that when we finally do get a clean break of the upper fib fan, it will indicate the start of wave 2.

If the move continues, the next hurdle will be trendline support near 1.345. This is the last even somewhat bullish lower parallel trendline that I could find to draw. Given it's proximity to the low last month, it may take a few tries to break through, but I don't see it as very strong support. We will be heading to new lows.

RSI and MACD are beginning to show signs of turning up on the short term charts.

Keep in mind the trend. Rebounds are meant to be sold.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Ping your blog