Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Euro Update and Opportunity...

What seemed a bit tentative yesterday appears less so today.

I was looking for an impulsive 5 wave count, and while not the most perfect looking impulse, what appears to be an ending 5th wave thrust from a 4th wave triangle ended the wave has helped clear the picture and raise the odds a bit.

The spike up post Fed today is steep, and as I type, is close to being counted as a 5 wave impulse. I will count that wave as "a". The opportunity to go short will come with the completion of the "c" wave, which could take a day to play out.

One potential blip in the bearish case is found on the daily bolliger band chart I have been showing lately. This is the fourth time since the downtrend began last November that we have touched the upper band. Each of the 3 times prior, we spent 3-4 days flirting with that level. Now, there is nothing that says we must have a repreat performance, however, since we did not break the average (midpoint) between the bands today, and instead, this area acted as resistance, it may mean either a very healthy retrace of this first wave down, or that we will head to new short term highs before a return to the bearish trend.

For now, we are well within common wave 2 retrace levels, with a 5 wave pattern behind us that leads the path ahead until proven wrong.
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