Monday, April 12, 2010

EUR/USD Touching the blue line...

The deep blue hue of the Pacific Ocean is unmatched by any color I have ever seen. The fish were not biting all that much, but the weather, company, and experience will be fresh in my memory long after the fillets have all been enjoyed.

I left the ocean and fishing lines behind yesterday to discover that the EUR/USD had indeed touched off on the upper blue trend channel line I had first mentioned in my post on 3/31/10, and then most recently mentioned again in my post last Tuesday, April 6th.

Whether the price action will fulfill my longer term EUR/USD count remains to be seen, but for now, the primary count in play remains either an ending diagonal for wave 5, or a yet to be seen impulse. If the latter is in play, we need to see some serious impulsive looking wave 3 down very soon... where things stand right now, I rank this option a distant 3rd in probability. The alternate is the bullish scenario (larger degree wave 2 in motion) I have been showing off and on since March 15th lows. It is possible to count an a-b-c flat correction for wave 2, followed by an impulse for wave 3 (or the start of wave 3 up). A clean break through the blue upper trendline shown would move this option up in probability, but it would take a break through of 1.3816 clenching this as the primary option.

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