Wednesday, April 21, 2010

EUR/USD - "D" wave of diagonal continuing...

It appears that wave "d" of the triangle has extended (of wave iv), which was the alternate discussed in yesterday's post. Look for a bounce over the next 24 hours to start forming wave "e" of the triangle, up to between 1.3550 to 1.36. Should the selling continue below the purple trendline support without a bounce into that area, chances increase that wave iv is already over and that wave v has begun heading to new lows. Either way, the name of the game is watch for opportunities to place short positions.

Note the various trend channels I am watching on different timescales. I adjusted the green and purple slightly earlier yesterday. The blue has remained unchanged for over a month. This upper channel line has provided significant resistance. A break above would likely mean a much more significant retracement of the entire move down from last November highs.

A break below 1.328 would eliminate most remaining bullish alternatives, although even without the break these are very low in probability.

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