Tuesday, March 23, 2010

EUR/USD Breakthrough! Or is it...

Special evening post to focus on what may be a key breakthrough in the short term bearish count I posted this morning. The EUR/USD has broken through key trendline support near 1.3460, and while it appears to be trying to reclaim that support as I write, I thought I would review the short term counts with you.

Here is the counts from this morning with lower trendline support in red:
EUR/USD 3/23 Morning Counts

The primary count has not changed. The alternate count, however, has changed a bit. It is still possible that we are in wave 2. This alternate has legs primarility because of the structure of the decline from the proposed primary count wave 2 high. It doesnt look impulsive... at least yet.

Again, neither of these scenarios change the longer term counts, so is really a matter of whether we begin declining impulsively now or wait for another pop up (probably to near 1.3624) to complete wave 2 first.

Personally, I am going to give the wave form time to stretch its legs and the primary count to take shape. Would hate to get scared out of position at this point, only to watch wave 3 develop out from underneath me.

Hopefully, but the morning the picture will be clear as to which scenario is in play.

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