tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18746228798015932562024-03-05T00:57:27.703-08:00The Creative Analytic.Daily forex elliott wave and technical analysis focused primarily on Euro and USD currency pairs. Intraday and longer term elliott wave counts as well as tools, tips and trading skills.protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-58864656799912751122011-08-11T15:02:00.000-07:002011-08-11T15:02:19.868-07:00Equity markets in freefall... what is next?It appears that my last post on July 1st, <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2011/07/why-i-cant-be-long-term-bullish-on-us.html">"Why I can't be long term bullish on US Stock Markets"</a> proved timely. Since that time, the S&P has been in virtual freefall territory in a move down where at it's lowest earlier this week, the index had shed over 250 points in a little less than a single month. A very, very big move. Since plumbing those depths earlier this week, we have had back to back wild swings of 4-5% reminisscent of late 2008. The natural question to ponder is... what do the next days and weeks hold?<br />
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Having ventured already into the long term picture and my perspective, lets head into the shorter term. I do not have a crystal ball, and will not pretend I can. I can only operate with a strategy to label possibilities as more or less likely to try to take the subjectivity out of trading as much as possible.<br />
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Let's take a close-up look at the S&P on an hourly chart with 2 possible sets of fibonnacci fans set up and a possible trend channel formation on the downtrend and on the potential uptrend currently in formation.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhCQhEPI_u0BYXkxhjCrbPpWQE6KuCASLzyCtmudSMdeHqGEOt_Sfpmxygny9w-QbEADc2x2EjBPwGZxGu8sInl4g1w9f23meBNE4zW7CHE_fu9LIKVYOo2Kj13sjOKNytNYWdKlT1V-D/s1600/s%2526p_81111.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhCQhEPI_u0BYXkxhjCrbPpWQE6KuCASLzyCtmudSMdeHqGEOt_Sfpmxygny9w-QbEADc2x2EjBPwGZxGu8sInl4g1w9f23meBNE4zW7CHE_fu9LIKVYOo2Kj13sjOKNytNYWdKlT1V-D/s400/s%2526p_81111.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
A few items we can get out of the way very quickly. So far, this is a 3 wave move on the hourly charts. If it truly is to remain a 3 wave move, then the market will rally above the low of the first wave at 1293 BEFORE it moves to a new low below 1101. If not, then it can be counted as a five 5 move. Simple enough. I have included a trend channel to the chart as well. Ideally, a fourth wave move will touch the trend channel line and then head to a move below 1101 to complete five waves. This last part is a guideline, not a rule...<br />
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So, are we in a 4th wave or have we just ended the C wave of a 3 wave move down? <br />
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Honestly, I don't know yet. But we can drill down into a shorter term chart to look at the action since the 1101 bottom earlier this week for clues.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeGwW-StYVmgZJ3r9so04qzgz-xbe5Hj4h5PBQtBclJSOanfRAxZXEyqgk3Lu05HZhXfxKnkB5pCg-QLnYLt66CLoIl2nJSpwLdERKT45y5KwfxU3BTmOMJS8dzymDlP0ZCv8XsZKPasLt/s1600/s%2526p_81111_15min.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeGwW-StYVmgZJ3r9so04qzgz-xbe5Hj4h5PBQtBclJSOanfRAxZXEyqgk3Lu05HZhXfxKnkB5pCg-QLnYLt66CLoIl2nJSpwLdERKT45y5KwfxU3BTmOMJS8dzymDlP0ZCv8XsZKPasLt/s400/s%2526p_81111_15min.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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What does this tell us? So far, there are 3 clear waves up... the first (lets call it an A wave for now) is the blast up from lows on the 9th in the final hour of trading that day. The second (B) ended at yesterday's close. The 3rd (C) is still in progress or just ended at today's high (the selloff right before the close is hinting that the wave may be over). It also shows me that while the entire move up hasn't yet touched the downward trend channel line that I have drawn (as of the close of today sloping down through about 1230 in the S&P), it can be counted as a completed 3 waves.<br />
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With 3 wave moves down on the hourly charts, and only a 3 wave move on the upper charts the ball is still with the bears for the moment hinting at a return to new lows to complete a 5 wave move down. I would like to see this wave get to the downward trendline before heading down to give more of an ideal structure. It still may get there, but if it does so, it will likely need to do it in a more complex correction if what I am calling wave C is over.<br />
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protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-81280031698563161692011-07-01T16:57:00.000-07:002011-07-01T16:57:23.115-07:00Why I can't be long term bullish on US Stock Markets...I really, really, really want to be bullish. Truly I do. I love America. My sister was born on July 4th, 1976... my grandparents lived the grapes of wrath in moving out of the dustbowl of OK to a better life for themselves in CA. The values of working hard and getting your hands dirty to build a life, a business, and a community is in my blood. Perhaps it is for these reasons that I have a very hard time accepting the current uptrend of the US stock market as "real"... that is, as a real indicator of future growth and prosperity ahead of us rather than the result of crafty financial gamesmanship at the highest level of the land.<br />
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Am I biased? You bet I am! But I would be willing to place my bias aside if I could venture into the market index trends and find a reason that my bias should be rejected and shunned in my long term investment decisions. But each time the market rallies these days, I find myself venturing back to the long term charts just to make sure that my long term horizon viewpoint is still founded in good practice. Why not come along for the ride. First stop... the Dow Jones...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR9O1oC88YG_ofs3c03UyldzerQ05LuEsp7EoKbQmSEGtu-5S3vSl2il8KamZ0ScqbfVkwTAaIsynFM6IBDEr9aHhagSTtGrGUIPJzMcVLqaTLagXsQz37g3VykX9QfdDc3RCB0lHtDbJd/s1600/DJ+Long+Term.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR9O1oC88YG_ofs3c03UyldzerQ05LuEsp7EoKbQmSEGtu-5S3vSl2il8KamZ0ScqbfVkwTAaIsynFM6IBDEr9aHhagSTtGrGUIPJzMcVLqaTLagXsQz37g3VykX9QfdDc3RCB0lHtDbJd/s400/DJ+Long+Term.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Arguably, this is the most bullish of the 3 main indexes I take a look at. 3 indicators I review... RSI (measure of momentum), volume, and price. Without getting into an elliott wave analysis, there are a few simple things that I can follow and that are very compelling to tell me what is happening. First, the momentum in the rally since 2009 is absolutely pathetic as compared to what existing at the top in 2008, and in 2000. In fact the top of RSI occured in the late 1990's. Also, if you zoom in a bit, you can see that momentum on the last leg of the rally from last years flash crash timeframe until today did not reach a new high while prices did. Volume is likewise diverging from price. Could we get a lasting bull market on successively lower volume? It is possible, but I can;t find one example to look toward in the indexes that would show me this is likely. In fact, the opposite is true... bull markets grow because more and more people buy into them over time. The rally from 2009 till today has less and less stocks changing hands. Does this mean the market will turn down tomorrow? Certainly not, but these divergences are profound and continuing to grow wider.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Next stop... Nasdaq...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfJvh_u731-Ql-0VyJ737YbLKeVdDRsvohzaF7Uyarr9yo1SZPCgEtYA3gUEQ97D7rU1Wl8RY-h-njHkTyLa3MjVUXF02-dk3KFCFsiNKzTZZhFsrb1fA9WC71Syh01irAnYPAp-cjy3tx/s1600/NASQ+Long+Term.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfJvh_u731-Ql-0VyJ737YbLKeVdDRsvohzaF7Uyarr9yo1SZPCgEtYA3gUEQ97D7rU1Wl8RY-h-njHkTyLa3MjVUXF02-dk3KFCFsiNKzTZZhFsrb1fA9WC71Syh01irAnYPAp-cjy3tx/s400/NASQ+Long+Term.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here too we have diverging RSI and volume, and in addition, we are rapidly closing in on an upper trendline formed by connecting the 2 lows of the index in the past decade, and by creating a parallel top trendline off the high point of 2008. Certainly the trendline is slightly up, but we are near the top of the trendline and still well below the all time top of the index in 2000. There are high probability elliott wave patterns in play here that help guide me to thinking a new low will be here eventually (perhaps after a test of the upper trendline), but I promised to keep elliott and his waves out of this post...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Last stop... S&P...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBPgM6t3iRz7YJcCAIExRuvZKcZJroR5hOaeZppbb9aS1xRF5obXIwMZS9Ukesyv7T_9grEoMGlQJZRkkDF5pPFVqWbARLMoeEzE5AA7OV35FtfisRvDYG0DBsMkOWdtjAmYpemmA6zrfr/s1600/S%2526P+Long+Term.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBPgM6t3iRz7YJcCAIExRuvZKcZJroR5hOaeZppbb9aS1xRF5obXIwMZS9Ukesyv7T_9grEoMGlQJZRkkDF5pPFVqWbARLMoeEzE5AA7OV35FtfisRvDYG0DBsMkOWdtjAmYpemmA6zrfr/s400/S%2526P+Long+Term.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>Different index, same story. Diverging RSI and volume. Trendlines heading down, and very close to testing the upper trendline.<br />
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The conclusion for me is simple. If I wanted to gamble on the market long term, today would not be the day. Should we break through the upper trendlines of the indexes with increasing volume and momentum, then I would absolutely change my mind and consider investing. Untill then, simply watching and waiting and working with my hands to build a better life for my family. Have a wonderful fourth of July. Take a moment if you can this weekend... between the BBQ's and fireworks, and really think about what you truly want from your country, and what you are prepared to do with your own hands to make it happen. We need more do'ers in this day of virtual everything. And doing comes from first sincerely putting some thought about what you want to change next.<br />
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Happy Birthday America!protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-59220466179495521242011-07-01T12:24:00.000-07:002011-07-01T12:35:32.253-07:00EUR/USD at a crossroads...Time to look at the longer term daily charts. The market is about to reveal to us the nature of the rally off the lows it registered last June... impulsive 5 waves up... or corrective 3 waves up. The new few weeks will be very important to the implications for the larger trend, so it is time to be watchful.<br />
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First chart below is the daily chart for the past year. I have included the elliott wave counts that I have been following along with trend channels and the standard RSI and MACD indicators that I use to judge where I am in the elliott wave counts and the momentum of the trend.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZqghnHv2HUTpW9IfOcQVMBAGmCPXeeRpyc1ZpibafSlSyXmDYfhYJUReEIEkwXLClvSd9cKW1IkWaSPFRHGFhY25FNd04BXfASDJmL9v-1zKqR9u-fl15A8U1TVyQYWSZoUQXPxShahX/s1600/EUR1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZqghnHv2HUTpW9IfOcQVMBAGmCPXeeRpyc1ZpibafSlSyXmDYfhYJUReEIEkwXLClvSd9cKW1IkWaSPFRHGFhY25FNd04BXfASDJmL9v-1zKqR9u-fl15A8U1TVyQYWSZoUQXPxShahX/s400/EUR1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
As you can see above, it appears that we have 2 impulsive waves off the lows back in June 2010 with a correction in between. The price action off of the recent May highs becomes critical... will it be a 4th wave, with a 5th to follow to new highs? Or is it the end of an ABC correction and beginning of a new trend down. Notice when the peak in RSI and MACD happen... they peak at where I have labeled the "3" of the first impulse wave. The RSI and MACD are also both clearly narrowing. <br />
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I have seen a number of counts pointing to a triangle with the count somethin like this...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG6DA_Bz1XEDVClIH8xNTdk1JoQQFA7fWMfotK4SeRevPzTpnaMBmAhC5ef4OJdEdQdfRm2X8kUBbrMBYgQxGRMwZ5we85FeNvJcFtReuAU67p3be0j3OvlOUG0MX8076mJaao4ybhASu6/s1600/EUR3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG6DA_Bz1XEDVClIH8xNTdk1JoQQFA7fWMfotK4SeRevPzTpnaMBmAhC5ef4OJdEdQdfRm2X8kUBbrMBYgQxGRMwZ5we85FeNvJcFtReuAU67p3be0j3OvlOUG0MX8076mJaao4ybhASu6/s400/EUR3.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
Or this (same message short term, different longer term implications)...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXxJCvkjX_7aXGQZXdm-tTasHgER1-atru0K98xumR73WjwdpZHrQQ0uEumRjDq0aK60nHTrJGoHVpEJG9HmVIRkhzw4H9e0awtW27wpKFTvjIap0jnCdW8rfkyraNyZVcV8bXQPu0Tjo/s1600/EUR5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXxJCvkjX_7aXGQZXdm-tTasHgER1-atru0K98xumR73WjwdpZHrQQ0uEumRjDq0aK60nHTrJGoHVpEJG9HmVIRkhzw4H9e0awtW27wpKFTvjIap0jnCdW8rfkyraNyZVcV8bXQPu0Tjo/s400/EUR5.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
1.427 is a absolutely critical level to the first of these bullish triangle counts (bold red line in chart). Elliott wave rules do not allow a 4th wave to enter into the territory of the 1st wave. Triagles are common 4th wave structures and are allowed to enter into the price territory of the first wave as long as the endpoint of the "E" wave of the triangle ends above the 1st wave territory... in this case at the level of 1.4277. If we break below, this count is proven incorrect. However, a triangle or flat can still be forming based on the second bullish count. Prices would have to fall below 1.385 before these counts are off the table. Personally, I view this bullish option as less likely... the 4th wave is very large and long in the tooth as compared to the second wave.<br />
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There is another count I am watching that is bullish on the very short term, but bearish further out. It looks like this...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZuuMl8pd5woWgPZ7t06c4K886GXkbWeXLsuqHXWkw6QMboKDg77H8S6V4IYq3KqiznmGeJ1ky5yI3ze_23HAbPtXftXCXNVyuCxbk5len24AIxsHk9D7plhm0eHcX3WDrU0046zcinhBT/s1600/EUR2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" i$="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZuuMl8pd5woWgPZ7t06c4K886GXkbWeXLsuqHXWkw6QMboKDg77H8S6V4IYq3KqiznmGeJ1ky5yI3ze_23HAbPtXftXCXNVyuCxbk5len24AIxsHk9D7plhm0eHcX3WDrU0046zcinhBT/s400/EUR2.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
I like this count for a number of reasons. The RSI and MACD peaking on the first wave? Possible, but not likely. They also are creating a divergence with price which many times is a warning sign that prices are peaking and about to head the other direction. Also, take a look at the bold blue trendline that we burst through to the upside prior to May's peak. Many times after a break in a trendline, the market will send prices back down to test that trendline before deciding on its future path. It happened last year (bold green trendline), and it is likely to happen again. Also, the purple tren channel seems to be forming which would make a nice stopping point for a wave 2 (or wave B if you prefer). If we break through 1.469 to the upside, I will be watching any resistance that this trendline has for opportunities to go short... especially if the above triangle scenarios are eliminated first.<br />
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Bottom line... I am watching the action over the next few weeks very closely to clues to help me eliminate counts. You should be too!protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-78195612552204256482010-09-13T15:35:00.000-07:002010-09-13T15:35:03.870-07:00EUR/USD - Daily Gap Beggin for Some Love!I know, I know... it has been awhile. It is still a very busy season for me, but thought I would take a few moments out to post what may be a solid opportunity forming in the EUR/USD pair. Gaps on the daily chart do not open up very often, and when they do, they are most often filled very quickly.<br />
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Will it be the case this time? I can't be sure with absolute certainty, but with today's large move having touched the daily upper bollinger bands with a daily gap up, I would be very very careful about buying into going long at this point. Looks like a scorcher to me!!!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsLQP1K1NINIjsC3LH03KzQIEo_Gto0CV31l4Tb41yYIzdD7Ju_wN-gdcb-WfIEyBQrfjSMpKQ6wvnGMnWjV4KNDra90W4Xavn3wfb_5PppefWBN511ExhvtmGSxq27wYy4v67v6dweB3/s1600/EUR+91310.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsLQP1K1NINIjsC3LH03KzQIEo_Gto0CV31l4Tb41yYIzdD7Ju_wN-gdcb-WfIEyBQrfjSMpKQ6wvnGMnWjV4KNDra90W4Xavn3wfb_5PppefWBN511ExhvtmGSxq27wYy4v67v6dweB3/s320/EUR+91310.png" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-14043916950555442092010-06-23T20:03:00.000-07:002010-06-23T20:05:15.899-07:00Euro Update and Opportunity...What seemed a bit tentative yesterday appears less so today. <br />
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I was looking for an impulsive 5 wave count, and while not the most perfect looking impulse, what appears to be an ending 5th wave thrust from a 4th wave triangle ended the wave has helped clear the picture and raise the odds a bit.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm6o_m6ll0N5LuriLif3CBoIWUvDESjWZhFqytM-oJKgL1P7bTYno8wM16605d8rGi9UzzP5ke_TKSEbKCnS-dIYkLokvlTN3JVAN0QvBTWaDpR9aO11U_7rAdY1JeuKCMII4U5Llgd1e-/s1600/eur100.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm6o_m6ll0N5LuriLif3CBoIWUvDESjWZhFqytM-oJKgL1P7bTYno8wM16605d8rGi9UzzP5ke_TKSEbKCnS-dIYkLokvlTN3JVAN0QvBTWaDpR9aO11U_7rAdY1JeuKCMII4U5Llgd1e-/s320/eur100.png" /></a></div><br />
The spike up post Fed today is steep, and as I type, is close to being counted as a 5 wave impulse. I will count that wave as "a". The opportunity to go short will come with the completion of the "c" wave, which could take a day to play out.<br />
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One potential blip in the bearish case is found on the daily bolliger band chart I have been showing lately. This is the fourth time since the downtrend began last November that we have touched the upper band. Each of the 3 times prior, we spent 3-4 days flirting with that level. Now, there is nothing that says we must have a repreat performance, however, since we did not break the average (midpoint) between the bands today, and instead, this area acted as resistance, it may mean either a very healthy retrace of this first wave down, or that we will head to new short term highs before a return to the bearish trend. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg4pNzvO84R2cLeKXhtbdf4RjpGL9gswCA-hBfYt8BF6DaO7E2pQYQ8153S7Lzu6QFMihwwxUXFZAyuXNXcrnEO9Fv3Ov3t8Eql_XsbrzQqS1ryFdgHCozcKqquyr3BAXVyVhNNaP5-5Ue/s1600/EUR+bol3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg4pNzvO84R2cLeKXhtbdf4RjpGL9gswCA-hBfYt8BF6DaO7E2pQYQ8153S7Lzu6QFMihwwxUXFZAyuXNXcrnEO9Fv3Ov3t8Eql_XsbrzQqS1ryFdgHCozcKqquyr3BAXVyVhNNaP5-5Ue/s320/EUR+bol3.png" /></a></div>For now, we are well within common wave 2 retrace levels, with a 5 wave pattern behind us that leads the path ahead until proven wrong.protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-21618953192941953402010-06-22T11:12:00.000-07:002010-06-22T12:43:04.063-07:00Whose afraid of a little debt... the Euro is.<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">A brief reflective look at the Euro.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Short term perspective first.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Last Thursday the post <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/06/not-even-going-to-try-to-count-this.html">"Not Even Going to Try to Count This..."</a> described an rally set in overlapping waves. Two charts posted, the first with no elliott wave counts posted (I really tried, but it was just too much of a mess... one of the reasons why I believe that this will be fully retraced eventually), listing a prediction of a bounce to the mid 1.25's. The second a touch of the upper bollinger band on the daily chart. Here is what they looked like:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRhhheh_dDRKVU310j_wYoAAOTxbkYfMPSif_Ety1Vtko09gVj38w4shZBtNZBo8CdjS3nlyUwQ5kBDM_FWgTr_7a-6YViWgOx0S7RR2zpbDWshKkh-Rjz7WrfpVvEMxuTtVwy7swt6htP/s1600/eur+st.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRhhheh_dDRKVU310j_wYoAAOTxbkYfMPSif_Ety1Vtko09gVj38w4shZBtNZBo8CdjS3nlyUwQ5kBDM_FWgTr_7a-6YViWgOx0S7RR2zpbDWshKkh-Rjz7WrfpVvEMxuTtVwy7swt6htP/s320/eur+st.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdYOgyHfMg3Nr_bvFbWzNpX7oP18RaCge430B2h3zWonN6AbvEGff8x_upKr_FUC1wtIaccqaF2hFHpX4JT3xB_Bh75ud2jWAJ3Xrt4_Jcr7r58UPYForyy4X-NAaCSL_j4vKS9hVnhOCX/s1600/eur+bol.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdYOgyHfMg3Nr_bvFbWzNpX7oP18RaCge430B2h3zWonN6AbvEGff8x_upKr_FUC1wtIaccqaF2hFHpX4JT3xB_Bh75ud2jWAJ3Xrt4_Jcr7r58UPYForyy4X-NAaCSL_j4vKS9hVnhOCX/s320/eur+bol.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The top tick ended up being 1.2513 (this may differ from what your market makers data tells you since the top tick happened on traditionally low volume Sunday afternoon), and we now have what is beginning to look like an impulsive wave as a retreat.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Here's the daily bollinger band today:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3U_VWzIzIArOOjKEmx4CR1zMcdgfV3aStvlSTHzRDhxMfbvKGY7CGU7ubsEbLXs1NX9FaYjcNsG3ust9954LMbA7dgzAn_Zrle8yB49R-WNBbyiG_9euPryAJ3jVZqPyGj-rcynDBZEMX/s1600/EUR+bol2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3U_VWzIzIArOOjKEmx4CR1zMcdgfV3aStvlSTHzRDhxMfbvKGY7CGU7ubsEbLXs1NX9FaYjcNsG3ust9954LMbA7dgzAn_Zrle8yB49R-WNBbyiG_9euPryAJ3jVZqPyGj-rcynDBZEMX/s320/EUR+bol2.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Notice the perfect touch of the upper. The technical trigger using this method is a cross of the moving average/midpoint, so we are not quite there yet using strictly the daily bollinger.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">We may have just finished (presently in a wave 2 up) or are nearly finished (another dip for a wave 5) with the first impulse wave down...</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfsu4SUcZ1wJueb-cQ4Ha5_Wzh7JXx2GEHUnud8Md63xfKJ4jHCM3i6-jaIxPhLKtOOrEY0eBezqlxw6eyz5SM7x_58NdidmQuGzlXga0VuixCATyjz7iC7e1_398N00kEwENPv_Ur_1q-/s1600/eurst2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfsu4SUcZ1wJueb-cQ4Ha5_Wzh7JXx2GEHUnud8Md63xfKJ4jHCM3i6-jaIxPhLKtOOrEY0eBezqlxw6eyz5SM7x_58NdidmQuGzlXga0VuixCATyjz7iC7e1_398N00kEwENPv_Ur_1q-/s320/eurst2.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Longer term...</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">On May 22nd, I posted <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-05-18T17%3A17%3A00-07%3A00&max-results=7">"EUR/USD Downside target realized, and then some..."</a>. At that time, I was exploring a very bearish option that has us in a wave 3 down since last November. While I have since shifted my view to one that places us in a lesser bearish C wave (see "<a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/06/updated-eurusd-long-term-view.html">Updated Longer Term EUR/USD View</a>"), the internals of 3 vs C are the same.... a five wave impulse wave. Here is the chart from that post speculating on how wave 1 of 3 (or the entirety of C) would finish up.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdTG231skekC296_pGMxgrFcFx7gp6xx-0u0lzBddRwblktMIBx3T4DzpNt5Uv_jz-2Jz12qY-JMq4izYrGYK4m3uwlNpgsnQUozF6K_aoewOfyurm2IHffFp8DSgns24NJ9Y7KbP-hVKs/s1600/EUR53.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdTG231skekC296_pGMxgrFcFx7gp6xx-0u0lzBddRwblktMIBx3T4DzpNt5Uv_jz-2Jz12qY-JMq4izYrGYK4m3uwlNpgsnQUozF6K_aoewOfyurm2IHffFp8DSgns24NJ9Y7KbP-hVKs/s320/EUR53.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">This turned out to be precisely what the market had in store for us up until now.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0BdqzadolQbm17i0SWmig-_kXw10suPNuGbau1ztC-D6lK42I_jndHRMwvMjfk3Ey-k04uzhU4VLHVYk_M_RWYBuuxh40tZjyvqPSnAvhm6f5qqCtVbSvTdLWlEdVCLR-nSZoiiU0hbEF/s1600/EUR+99.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0BdqzadolQbm17i0SWmig-_kXw10suPNuGbau1ztC-D6lK42I_jndHRMwvMjfk3Ey-k04uzhU4VLHVYk_M_RWYBuuxh40tZjyvqPSnAvhm6f5qqCtVbSvTdLWlEdVCLR-nSZoiiU0hbEF/s320/EUR+99.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Notice the sharp retracement of wave [iv] noted into the mid 1.20's. I believed at the time that it would be sharp because of the tendancy of waves 2 and 4 to alternate. In this case, since wave [ii] was a flat, then probability favored wave [iv] being a sharper corrective rally, more like a zig zag. If wave [iv] is finished, it probably counts best as a double or triple zig zag, but whatever the count, it certainly fit the alternation tendancy that Elliott describes. If wave [iv] is not finished, and we break through 1.2513 on solid momentum, it will likely mean my count is wrong. This does not mean that the bearish trend is over, only that the internal subdivisions need more time to work themselves out. I still believe we will hit that lower green trendline (very speculative) before monting a more significant rally.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-87843800428544941882010-06-17T17:48:00.000-07:002010-06-17T17:48:58.983-07:00Not even going to try to count this...What a mess. Your guess is as good as mine on the count, but with overlapping waves all over the place, I categorize it as a correction. The wave may stop at the area circles, but need a 5 wave move down to confirm a top.<br />
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If we break through this area, we likely head up to upper bollinger band before the wave ends... in the mod 1.25's.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh_eo9zTgnbyWJPY1KehIYKmepzh1P-rYGkBRTKZyyQqi9a495QaimMm1CtnhAfQhZrckbwHkzgGjIvpidZ-OZ3Bf0w-zqKUyeKumcHKQlr80K_1uYLKv3SA7F7z0_dVg3z_HQ3sDyMfLI/s1600/eur+st.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" qu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh_eo9zTgnbyWJPY1KehIYKmepzh1P-rYGkBRTKZyyQqi9a495QaimMm1CtnhAfQhZrckbwHkzgGjIvpidZ-OZ3Bf0w-zqKUyeKumcHKQlr80K_1uYLKv3SA7F7z0_dVg3z_HQ3sDyMfLI/s320/eur+st.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHeXfe4V1iljYTOQsK8-Mkmidh79zUl1UIXvXBJ-N4xXENKoyJjiJBKaJNXrCwfbhlMXGcfTLgOXZBO207EDRcTbUBfXB6Qxy62JKpjH_aKhva10ACOl4ZJfrbVtnH4h4CRGKsnlpGgX6h/s1600/eur+bol.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" qu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHeXfe4V1iljYTOQsK8-Mkmidh79zUl1UIXvXBJ-N4xXENKoyJjiJBKaJNXrCwfbhlMXGcfTLgOXZBO207EDRcTbUBfXB6Qxy62JKpjH_aKhva10ACOl4ZJfrbVtnH4h4CRGKsnlpGgX6h/s320/eur+bol.png" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-60239178751382483522010-06-17T16:47:00.000-07:002010-06-17T17:54:44.728-07:00Updated EUR/USD Long Term View<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">It has been almost a month since my last post. It is good to be back. While the business of trading continues, my time has been limited for posts due to vacation, illness, endurance training, house remodels, and other business ventures. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Needless to say, I have been a tad overbooked.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The market has been anything but unexciting during the past month. Before I get back into the shorter time periods, my longer term analysis is in need of a refresher.</div><br />
Take a gander at the <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/p/eurusd-longer-term-view.html">longer term view</a> I posted back in March of this year.<br />
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The counts I described are all well intact, and with the latest month worth of price action, a count has moved into the forefront as most likely, that we are in an ABC correction down from early 2008 highs.<br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Because we have broken through below the end of wave A at 1.2328 it is entirely possible that the entire ABC correction is complete and that we are about to embark on a new bull market that will carry us to new highs. It is possible, but I do not believe it is the most probable scenario just yet.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The shorter term counts favor at least another dip to a low before bottoming, and the rally action over the last week or so looks corrective in nature... certainly persistant, but not impulsive. And we are still within the area of the previous 4th wave, a very common retracement area. No impulse means it is most likely corrective, and probably a 4th wave of the entire move down from last November highs. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkHnJzXfFkULAGk6bq0ACDa-2yZONDqY0ul3khLbhqO2M92yeAOVxc3chrOvkYBZM7v9TM14e6AJ15o2L_JT3se0MPPpkvrzDDJUGmp9vnlRxNuf_1hpCiB1cpCMeuefDj0E0Nf24-BSyb/s1600/Eur.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" qu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkHnJzXfFkULAGk6bq0ACDa-2yZONDqY0ul3khLbhqO2M92yeAOVxc3chrOvkYBZM7v9TM14e6AJ15o2L_JT3se0MPPpkvrzDDJUGmp9vnlRxNuf_1hpCiB1cpCMeuefDj0E0Nf24-BSyb/s400/Eur.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Additionally, notice the parallel trend lines (green) built off the highs of 2008 and late last year in the chart below. There is a cluster of support created by where this lower trendline crosses 61.8% retracement of the previous 5 wave rally to 2008 (1.1205), and the 78.6% fib fan from the previous 5 wave move intersects. This is an area that acted as support back in 1997-98 during a bear market. The other area I am watching is the low of late 2005 at 1.1659. Also important right in the middle of this price area is the point at which C equals A, 1.1434. There is a common equality relationship between the A and C waves in a correction, especially in a zig zag formation.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxVd-MygfkIoe676iwBuSnfwPqM0zPVaeXddzagCMRkxOQh_Sm7Mevr5kYxSD9CiyBXy7wCC7DuPVFBwTbsOLq2oiqcNHQ3Kfq-XME85qcDIRQMr4Vj9K8wqAn3PfrU6-A5sYHeyxzB26/s1600/EUR+LT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" qu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxVd-MygfkIoe676iwBuSnfwPqM0zPVaeXddzagCMRkxOQh_Sm7Mevr5kYxSD9CiyBXy7wCC7DuPVFBwTbsOLq2oiqcNHQ3Kfq-XME85qcDIRQMr4Vj9K8wqAn3PfrU6-A5sYHeyxzB26/s400/EUR+LT.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">So, my target for wave C to end is between 1.1205 and 1.1659, with an emphasis on the area around the equality measure of 1.1434.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The alternate count is very, very bearish. If it is indeed the true count, the Euro is in for a very rough ride ahead, and may not survive the fall. This is the count that Prechter believes is in play. I am not quote ready to get that bearish yet. We'll explore that option in more detail if we cross below the previously cited major support areas.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-15569427462840551552010-05-26T22:43:00.000-07:002010-05-26T22:44:41.866-07:00Diverging RSI<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Often, when there are conflicting elliott wave counts that are both likely, additional indicators such as RSI can help push the probability of one as "most likely" into the spotlight.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Today is one such instance.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Yesterday's chart has two potential counts listed. </div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLQjOhCTUjK0j2XFjGhXw2di5Oviw8Pl0VTk1oLIhY6o50lCKraondXru7h6P2EofzEIhBsKJB8Ojc4vLzHJX8MlW80m-wljHDrxeD9pccdCItICyQ4T5cq_phlYJPQ8VUqPGlKQPKW_5L/s1600/EUR57.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLQjOhCTUjK0j2XFjGhXw2di5Oviw8Pl0VTk1oLIhY6o50lCKraondXru7h6P2EofzEIhBsKJB8Ojc4vLzHJX8MlW80m-wljHDrxeD9pccdCItICyQ4T5cq_phlYJPQ8VUqPGlKQPKW_5L/s320/EUR57.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Thanks to diverging RSI while the Euro hit a new short term price low, I now have more confidence that the count listed today is squarely in the top spot. It is not that the alternate is not possible (it still is), it is simply that the primary is so much more likely.</div></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4wuEnHHL5t_j8u8wnKGJg5tkAWi1zvF1siGg4ZRzhXL33xEoKxvMgkOhZSWwM8BcFvKWSLtRyaskfCwNz_4rwk5jCJLQvqHLDez82lXHR1F-Vr6LzDsGnsNNZxQj_n47Vuul1dQ7CBX8J/s1600/EUR58.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4wuEnHHL5t_j8u8wnKGJg5tkAWi1zvF1siGg4ZRzhXL33xEoKxvMgkOhZSWwM8BcFvKWSLtRyaskfCwNz_4rwk5jCJLQvqHLDez82lXHR1F-Vr6LzDsGnsNNZxQj_n47Vuul1dQ7CBX8J/s320/EUR58.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Since we did not yet hit a new low and so far, the late afternoon rebound appears to be in 3 wave form, look to a new low after perhaps more consolidation up towards 1.24 (or maybe even higher) over the next few hours to a day in a wave 2 move. The alternate mentioned yesterday also has us rallying short term... a little higher though above 1.2675 to complete wave c of wave (iv) in a flat before the next bearish wave begins. </div></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-10975655230846533132010-05-25T21:58:00.000-07:002010-05-25T21:58:53.894-07:00EUR/USD... Bottoms up!<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The correction since the May 19th low counts clearly corrective as an ABC (or WXY if you prefer). The decline that has follow is so far only in 3 waves and has not yet hit new lows. Primary count I am following has us hitting a new low in a 5th wave before another change at a longer term correction. However, because the move down is so far only in 3 waves, an alternate count of a potential flat correction as a possibility which would have us moving higher is still on the table. A move below May 19th lows would eliminate this count, whil a move above 1.2340 would render the more bearish count highly improbable. </div><br />
Keep in mind though, that even if the more short term bullish flat correction interpretation is correct, we eventually will find new lows. A move higher above last weeks high of 1.2671 in 5 waves, without hitting new lows under 1.214 would be yet another opportunity for the bears.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrMewK_ZtMUV-jt_9UmIrIEpRaXXLYrR_NcbPwIZrmvjzF9oobMbjh1pK6PJcP3AhnZTPYTSd7yg1557dyAKXKIm7InUDnHfV3EJlRmWWQxtoHDage46Td3qEeKQpRV2YmnljV8TXHHdAh/s1600/EUR57.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrMewK_ZtMUV-jt_9UmIrIEpRaXXLYrR_NcbPwIZrmvjzF9oobMbjh1pK6PJcP3AhnZTPYTSd7yg1557dyAKXKIm7InUDnHfV3EJlRmWWQxtoHDage46Td3qEeKQpRV2YmnljV8TXHHdAh/s320/EUR57.png" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-47853859162326814592010-05-20T16:36:00.000-07:002010-05-20T16:37:58.765-07:00Euro: Classic Elliott Wave Patterns<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">I have rarely seen elliott wave patterns so clear as they have been in playing out over the past months in the EUR/USD pair. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div>I have always found that elliott wave is easiest to trade where volume and volatility are present. Volume is needed to capture the largest social mood patterns, and volatility to amplify the patterns so that it is easier to see in real time. As the heaviest traded currency pair in the world the EUR/USD meets the volume characteristic needed, and the volatility over the past months due to the sovereign debt crisis surely has amplified the patterns.<br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The moves over the past 24 hours since my last post are no exception. The market has moved almost precisely as Elliott guidelines and wave patterns would indicate. Anyone who doubts that Elliott wave cannot assisst in helping narrow the possibilities of where the market should head, or just simply believes that markets are entirely random and unpredictable needs to see the past few days charts.</div><br />
<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Yesterday had us in a clear 5 wave pattern off new lows for the EUR/USD (new 4 year lows in fact). Elliott wave analysis indicated that we should see a correction back to the area of the previous fourth wave and toward the common fib retrace area starting at 38%... followed by at least another 5 wave rally to new highs in a wave c or 3.</div><br />
<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Here is yesterday's chart:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsoRdh9tjavRRUghZ94ncAvBRISrYwGoNY9dYVDrLVc7HKf8QbEih5NRyouJoDh-_nXM4ljFNkEllCRJuLZbVNnhvpDc5Gx5_mCbcIzn-vS-_26DMDrLU0-XSlu1RwZScphfGeGe_jouxT/s1600/EUR55.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsoRdh9tjavRRUghZ94ncAvBRISrYwGoNY9dYVDrLVc7HKf8QbEih5NRyouJoDh-_nXM4ljFNkEllCRJuLZbVNnhvpDc5Gx5_mCbcIzn-vS-_26DMDrLU0-XSlu1RwZScphfGeGe_jouxT/s320/EUR55.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"> </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Here is today's chart:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwejgNmqgNaQG2RVSwdXUCiYHegnItHWm3TMw4oYOMTfxkQzORmF6mYFYr0kDU28qiX9GoETZP20Zlbj_oMfZRzlKjSleFqzu67nJYJEV1uAvl1AXA0nbICEz5mLKS3AX7-1JxvWrZFcDx/s1600/EUR56.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwejgNmqgNaQG2RVSwdXUCiYHegnItHWm3TMw4oYOMTfxkQzORmF6mYFYr0kDU28qiX9GoETZP20Zlbj_oMfZRzlKjSleFqzu67nJYJEV1uAvl1AXA0nbICEz5mLKS3AX7-1JxvWrZFcDx/s320/EUR56.png" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The wave ii or b low of just below 1.23 is both within the are of the previous 4th wave, and squarely in the fibonacci zone. More important, is that its wave structure was overlapping in its form and in 3 waves. This was a significant clue that made going long near these levels relatively easy with defined risk (for me, the max risk I was willing to take was the end of the fib zone near 68% retrace level, but a wave 11 or b could have gone all the way to test the low and still have been valid, albeit much less probable). The reward happened as elliott wave predicted in a wave 3 or c move up to new highs. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Wave 3 or c is either over or has one more pop up to new highs before it is complete. Warning to the bulls though that the move down on the ultra short term charts can be counted as impulsive, so caution is needed.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Once wave 3 or c is completed (if it is not already), it becomes critical to watch the pattern of how the market corrects the move... if impulsive in 5 waves down, the we likely head to new lows before another shot at rallying. If in 3 overlapping waves, then we indeed be in a 4th wave and headed back up to complete the 5th wave of the move off the lows. Should the latter happen, it would mean a larger rally was unfolding, after a 3 wave correction. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Time to watch carefully and plan the next strategic trade...</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
I will be at a conference all day tommorrow, so no posts until next week. Good luck to you all and be careful out there. Volatility and risk are back in full force! </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-69379780799998074392010-05-19T15:11:00.000-07:002010-05-19T15:11:46.846-07:00Euro - 5 waves down followed by 5 waves up<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"> Yesterdays post warned that 5 waves down on the hourly charts was nearly complete and that we would likely be heading for a rally to at least correct the impulse wave down occuring since 1.304. The post proved timely as within the hour the EUR/USD began rallying. The post also mentioned the fiurst significant support at the area surrounding 1.2425. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The rally appears to have completed or nearly completed 5 small degree waves up, and has stalled near 1.2425. This indicates that the trend at <strong>some degree</strong> has changed. To what degree is unknown. I have placed both options for counts on today's chart, but we will have to wait and see. Until then, I will keep laser focused on the short term charts for hints either way. Until then, we are in for a correction of the EUR/USD rally likely to fib areas which also fall in the price area of the rallies 4th wave. For those of you who are new to Elliott wave analysis, this is a common retracement area for 2nd waves, so I will be watching this area for support. If I was still short, this would be a respectible area for me to exit my shorts and either wait for more clues or go long for the next wave up (whether it is a c wave or 3 wave doesnt matter to us very short term traders). </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">My gut and the fact that the latest low was not accompanied by a decent RSI divergence has me leaning toward the ABC option for this rally (more downside to come before a more significant rally), but I will let the market show me the way.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhprWFkidCOFG3-w3PI_uNizYs1gtyfRRd6BOPRBnTRjhSrH356LwBPep1-tfUE7lzsjCwGYwpsDdydjeZoDnqnR2eNkZl7twR7w7o41j1GHZPy3bsMkxgD-HDCEcQ9_leEGyd9uVC61FrI/s1600/EUR55.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhprWFkidCOFG3-w3PI_uNizYs1gtyfRRd6BOPRBnTRjhSrH356LwBPep1-tfUE7lzsjCwGYwpsDdydjeZoDnqnR2eNkZl7twR7w7o41j1GHZPy3bsMkxgD-HDCEcQ9_leEGyd9uVC61FrI/s320/EUR55.png" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-87900340032826708842010-05-18T17:17:00.000-07:002010-05-18T17:17:16.054-07:00EUR/USD - 5 Small Degree Waves Down...Forecast yesterday was right on as we plunged into a new low this morning.<br />
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I can count 5 waves down as being completed or very close to being completed since last weeks high of 1.3094 on the hourly charts for EUR/USD. So, irregardless of the larger counts, we are very near at least a break in the downward trend for now. Still no sign (five wave impulse upward on any timeframe) of a bottom as of this writing however.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-mL9IMQXAk49Hbs4-Z1ZSXGPoyOd3K558idWeT2rdtq1_OjdRpPF5lm-4P-Dz83KCj4uqx41d9Y6OAm1wqy-Mzp8l4mboDLa3YEs43yRVzxUvQW33VSuqJULdwRc4ECXBEPmkr5MtxNdF/s1600/EUR54.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-mL9IMQXAk49Hbs4-Z1ZSXGPoyOd3K558idWeT2rdtq1_OjdRpPF5lm-4P-Dz83KCj4uqx41d9Y6OAm1wqy-Mzp8l4mboDLa3YEs43yRVzxUvQW33VSuqJULdwRc4ECXBEPmkr5MtxNdF/s320/EUR54.png" wt="true" /></a></div><br />
Previous fourth wave area surrounding 1.2425 will be the first siginificant resistance for any bounce to encounter. <br />
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As for me, I am watching and waiting for the structure of any bounces that develop. It is time for caution and risk to prevail.protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-44277723026040784872010-05-17T16:30:00.000-07:002010-05-17T16:30:57.504-07:00EUR/USD Downside target realized, and then some...<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Back from a very restful vacation taken during one of the most volatile times in the market in memory. Equity markets dropping 9%+ in a matter of minutes a week ago Thursday, and the Euro seemingly freefalling through support levels of the past few years.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">I must admit, I did keep an eye on the markets, and even placed a few short positions in the EUR/USD... I couldn't resist. No posts though... had to keep my family commitments first!</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div>Clearly, the Euro has blown clearly through the target of 1.289 in mid-May I had posted back in March... and it did so without much resistance at all, which throws the entire idea of a lower yellow trendline (shown for the last time below) holding back selling pressure. And this morning, another breakthrough to 4 year lows! What a time to take a vacation!<br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Since it has been awhile since I have posted my position on elliott wave counts on the EUR/USD, rather than dive right back into the short term charts, I thought I would get back into the swing of things with an update on the minor degree count I think is most probable governing the trend since last November, and speculate a bit about where I see the market possibly moving from here.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv3zspscxKlhCgO2Sq_83za4pRz5LLDDwS_M5c4XGrZGb2eOV62po7ehQnbLtfhVcwV7aWBHmixpCuTjflMW0dcjDTevI4j_WOX7QHctaNtrQJybcphQquW7LFqKmU8MLifHASs4thLSm5/s1600/EUR53.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv3zspscxKlhCgO2Sq_83za4pRz5LLDDwS_M5c4XGrZGb2eOV62po7ehQnbLtfhVcwV7aWBHmixpCuTjflMW0dcjDTevI4j_WOX7QHctaNtrQJybcphQquW7LFqKmU8MLifHASs4thLSm5/s320/EUR53.png" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The biggest change in the minor count I am following is that it appears that wave 5 is extending. It is very common for 1 wave to extend in an impulsive wave, and since wave 1 and wave 3 are nearly equal, it is ideal for me in identifying the larger wave structure that wave 5 extends because the presence of an extension reinforces that we are indeed in an impulsive wave. </div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">There are certainly other more bearish counts from some very smart analysts. One of which has us in the throws of an intermediate wave 3 after a series of 1-2's. I would rather not go into the pro's and con's of other views right now, and would rather stick with the one that has made the most sense to me along the way beginning, and has worked out very well for trading purposes.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">This count has some more downside ahead moving toward a completion of 5 minor waves down (intermediate 1 wave completion), which I speculate will be followed by an intermediate wave 2 that if it is an ideal second wave, should last for a few months and take us into the most common retracement fibonacci levels and end within the previous minor wave 4 price range.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-5603369514607693762010-05-04T11:13:00.000-07:002010-05-04T11:13:48.968-07:00Longer term view prediction getting closer...Here is the target and prediction I put forth on March 22nd. That we would hit the trendline near 1.289 in or around the mid-May timeframe. While it took wave 4 much longer to play out than was apparent on March 22nd, the market appears to be attracted to the lower trendline like a magnet. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYIy7xFgkkj7_k7EyZGSxBuxuv7VlU_euyr00Q1cKEydS3Q9jYMlmfT4o7_7XSFBGhhBSJ-MD3Jd7Z4bQHGZCVcOpLCayGfoz4OkaMG5hyC_Q_ra6Xr3INLs1Z3w_KZRXOT2nRQZ0OSZB2/s1600/EUR_-_LT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYIy7xFgkkj7_k7EyZGSxBuxuv7VlU_euyr00Q1cKEydS3Q9jYMlmfT4o7_7XSFBGhhBSJ-MD3Jd7Z4bQHGZCVcOpLCayGfoz4OkaMG5hyC_Q_ra6Xr3INLs1Z3w_KZRXOT2nRQZ0OSZB2/s320/EUR_-_LT.png" tt="true" /></a></div><br />
Notice the yellow trendline support.<br />
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Here is where we are today. Notice the blue trendline that has held all price action for months is not broken to the downside. Yellow trend channel target dead ahead!!!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBEUlvN27VP4ZBum5Xdqk3mmPaMxAZHGXq1eRUbYZoY-eDeQnhsJbdCmq59_kUw_L1S6n3cSuw2-b5GYG8wrL4RS4uN0ih5h7NoQfmKFDnP-edPNLW9u1ao9XTdO4BzZI8YE3tcv4HLkk/s1600/EUR51.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBEUlvN27VP4ZBum5Xdqk3mmPaMxAZHGXq1eRUbYZoY-eDeQnhsJbdCmq59_kUw_L1S6n3cSuw2-b5GYG8wrL4RS4uN0ih5h7NoQfmKFDnP-edPNLW9u1ao9XTdO4BzZI8YE3tcv4HLkk/s320/EUR51.png" tt="true" /></a></div><br />
Shert term analysis in <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/05/week-later-euro-still-declining.html">yesterdays post</a> I mentioned an opportunity with a bounce to 1.3206-1.3250 to go short for a wave 3. Here is what the chart and count looked like yesterday...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIifyeyirDwUIx8rlPCR8S46K7EkXw9d5Dqh0pZl3EuIZl6Sc0Kuk3Khu6UAkcRAVZR3LBn7bTwS64LzX6U_xJaJoxX6izJEkbIav7Qi1-D_boiR6kF2y10J_15_1PYALfzKQuHy_nmAd5/s1600/EUR50.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIifyeyirDwUIx8rlPCR8S46K7EkXw9d5Dqh0pZl3EuIZl6Sc0Kuk3Khu6UAkcRAVZR3LBn7bTwS64LzX6U_xJaJoxX6izJEkbIav7Qi1-D_boiR6kF2y10J_15_1PYALfzKQuHy_nmAd5/s320/EUR50.png" tt="true" /></a></div><br />
As such, my best count is that we are in a wave iii of wave (iii) of wave [v] of wave 1, thrusting from a completed triangle, and on our way down to a touch of long time trend support. Wave iv and wave v are still ahead, but downside is now becoming limited before a much larger expected rally that could carry us to at least between 1.38 - 1.40 in a 3 wave correction of the entire move down from last November. This correction will serve to scare the now overcrowded, weaker shorts into long positions... just in time for wave 3.protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-62369814483743479002010-05-03T11:10:00.000-07:002010-05-03T11:10:58.167-07:00A week later... Euro still decliningMy apologies for no posts in a week. Unfortunately, I got hit with a viral bus in the shape of acute bronchitis and laryngitis... a very nasty combo. Almost as nasty as the combo punch that continues to decimate every Euro rally since last November. And if Elliott wave counts are correct, we still have a bit more to go on the downside before a more sustainable rally to correct the primary trend down.<br />
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Last <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/monday-update-on-eurusd.html">Monday</a> I mentioned that a new low was likely. Sure enough, we did hit a new low shortly after. On <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/euro-rebounds-but-for-how-long.html">Friday, April 23rd post</a>, I had posted that there were 2 counts that were most probable to explain the price action over the last month and a half... an ending diagonal 5th wave or a diagonal (or some call triangle) 4th wave... with the diagonal 4th as the most probable.<br />
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Today's short term action still has both firmly on the table and the likelyhood of new lows is clearly ahead of us. Here's the primary count I am following:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxbDmJbffd8GpXChLmov33sNYWsCFCWFftY787wG24qaiVu5vl40nee3-CMbgI__5-7HZg6_S3SfHJkhVjgy78Ka67cww4yWUTd-tdHfXj-vOC6nwmQvz0OEErGShnEcxrKTKzFtEgxvcR/s1600/EUR50.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxbDmJbffd8GpXChLmov33sNYWsCFCWFftY787wG24qaiVu5vl40nee3-CMbgI__5-7HZg6_S3SfHJkhVjgy78Ka67cww4yWUTd-tdHfXj-vOC6nwmQvz0OEErGShnEcxrKTKzFtEgxvcR/s320/EUR50.png" tt="true" /></a></div><br />
This has us in a wave ii of wave (iii) of wave [v]. Wave ii could take us near support in the prior fourth wave of 1.3206 - 1.3250, but it would take a break of last nights high of 1.3362 to move to the alternate, still bearish option of an ending diagonal 5th wave. The only difference in the alternate is some additional upside, likely to near 1.3450 prior to dropping down for a new low. A solid risk/reward opportunity on the short side is presenting itself with a near term bounce in 3 waves.<br />
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Although the short term is pointing clearly down, we are quickly heading into a time where a longer lasting bounce may be around the corner. My <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/p/eurusd-longer-term-view.html">longer term EUR/USD model</a> is still in play, and I fully expect a significant bounce to begin off the lower support trendline. The trend is down, but moving to a more cautious stance soon is certainly called for and wise.<br />
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protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-87249693336591767622010-04-26T13:54:00.000-07:002010-04-26T13:54:15.050-07:00Monday Update on the EUR/USD<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmnfzNLVr7S8KHTjM17GRwItC8rbWV0Pzh4Xc4c408YNF5wEMmpptYr_QUX59SqEf5XnFodcENZeS-En_kCq_hF3SIFaNU7tnUsk2lihl49q2h8dICUa0Y1sVyxTDS-hIXWQd2PPvM5-73/s1600/EUR48.png">Last Friday's count</a> is still very valid, and little new information added with today's price moves to swing the analysis one way or another. <br />
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What does seem to be probable is that after hitting new lows last week, the move upward seems to be in corrective form... which means eventual new lows once the correction is finished. We will have to wait and see more price action for specificity on the short term count. <br />
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Notice the rally stalling out right at fib 38% area. I think we will see more upside to this rally due to 3 waves on the short term charts.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcIOe8mCxATcKj1mSOjgbvaxl1VZ9tE92cQLsqROa6ti6X2576-kNj89oUC_zIVpgQuq41nNT-3IUDikupqzIkbD7JMWGbroe9skdT9zjQo3aa8XHrOqf0RaQ0O48arHBpYKOKyYmUEES/s1600/EUR49.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcIOe8mCxATcKj1mSOjgbvaxl1VZ9tE92cQLsqROa6ti6X2576-kNj89oUC_zIVpgQuq41nNT-3IUDikupqzIkbD7JMWGbroe9skdT9zjQo3aa8XHrOqf0RaQ0O48arHBpYKOKyYmUEES/s320/EUR49.png" tt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-18093341233977009002010-04-23T11:58:00.000-07:002010-04-23T11:58:37.900-07:00Euro Rebounds... but for how long?If you have been following these posts, you know that I have been bouncing back and forth as to whether we are an <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/eurusd-breaks-through-to-new-low.html">ending diagonal 5th wave</a>, or a <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/eurusd-d-wave-of-diagonal-continuing.html">diagonal wave 4th option</a>. Both are similar in form, but with the breakthrough yesterday to new lows, and what would have to be a very shollow "e" wave of the triangle, the ending diagonal view took the spotlight. The diagonal 4th is still the most likely alternative, but if we break through 1.3524 to the upside, the diagonal 4th option is completely off the table.<br />
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The selling didnt quite reach the lower blue line as I was anticipating yesterday, however, after doing some more analysis overnight, I realized that a touch of the blue line on the bottom would have eliminated the ending diagonal option completely, as wave 3 would have stretched out to be longer than wave 1 (a rule breaker in Elliott rules). The bounce that played out overnight was critical to the ending diagonal option.<br />
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Ending diagonal's are very rare and only take place where the preceding moves have gone too far, too fast. The Euro's move down from 1.51+ last November to 1.32 could be described as such a move. Even still, because of the rarity of seeing this pattern, and even more rare being able to identify it in real time before it is almost complete, I will continue to be vigilant in moving alternatives to the front and center as they become viable.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmnfzNLVr7S8KHTjM17GRwItC8rbWV0Pzh4Xc4c408YNF5wEMmpptYr_QUX59SqEf5XnFodcENZeS-En_kCq_hF3SIFaNU7tnUsk2lihl49q2h8dICUa0Y1sVyxTDS-hIXWQd2PPvM5-73/s1600/EUR48.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmnfzNLVr7S8KHTjM17GRwItC8rbWV0Pzh4Xc4c408YNF5wEMmpptYr_QUX59SqEf5XnFodcENZeS-En_kCq_hF3SIFaNU7tnUsk2lihl49q2h8dICUa0Y1sVyxTDS-hIXWQd2PPvM5-73/s320/EUR48.png" tt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-45151744527334700972010-04-22T14:54:00.000-07:002010-04-22T14:54:39.862-07:00EUR/USD Breaks Through to New Low!I was watching for a new low and now we have it, and with a nice break of both the short term (green), and long term (white) trend channel lines. And so far, I do not see signs of the downtrend diminishing. Because we have not had a significant counter-trend move that I have mentioned might take place over the last few days in what could be called a "wave e", I have lowered the probability of the diagonal 4th wave pattern that I have had as primary over the last week, and gone back to the ending diagonal 5th option <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyZNE6x4nYprZb1hGGs2hEeEB6BSAKwBHtYHc6pPKddmZpLK77SYDF8slfFxNY4DFygOX1Huu0LXuTIhzaVXHRHYpHL2poJUe4jMbo8F7zNpJR6ZcsELSs-zvGBrcN9_CZl2q9Zg8GkSJn/s1600/EUR39.png">from last week</a>. <br />
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There are always alternatives in elliott wave analysis, and it is sometimes challenging to know which one is playing out in real time. From my recent post though, I hope everyone has been taking away the most important lessons I have learned while trading using elliott wave... when both the top and alternate scenarios are pointed in the same direction, you can be wrong on the exact pattern and still have winning trades.<br />
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Again today the difference matters very little for the short term. Likely more room to the downside. The next area to watch for for this round of selling to end is along the lower blue trendline, which is currently declining through 1.3120. I will be specifically watching for a crossover in the MACD, and a divergence between new price lows and RSI extremes to help judge whether the trend may be changing.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh56rYF442HyoKeH2T_OkP5_QezBEJ2G11S2oVxOPYOyWepQ-7V7cJaDLxlLHez_N-p38E9tuLHJAWJStr-_OQAL-Purz6v56qzyFd4_-K_tefMBTUq_FzyiZoHQ_5VYIttYB8-HUmMvjc/s1600/EUR47.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh56rYF442HyoKeH2T_OkP5_QezBEJ2G11S2oVxOPYOyWepQ-7V7cJaDLxlLHez_N-p38E9tuLHJAWJStr-_OQAL-Purz6v56qzyFd4_-K_tefMBTUq_FzyiZoHQ_5VYIttYB8-HUmMvjc/s320/EUR47.png" wt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-84575542725457537452010-04-21T15:18:00.000-07:002010-04-21T15:18:18.894-07:00EUR/USD - "D" wave of diagonal continuing...It appears that wave "d" of the triangle has extended (of wave iv), which was the alternate discussed in <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/eurusd-diagonal-wave-in-motion.html">yesterday's post</a>. Look for a bounce over the next 24 hours to start forming wave "e" of the triangle, up to between 1.3550 to 1.36. Should the selling continue below the purple trendline support without a bounce into that area, chances increase that wave iv is already over and that wave v has begun heading to new lows. Either way, the name of the game is watch for opportunities to place short positions.<br />
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Note the various trend channels I am watching on different timescales. I adjusted the green and purple slightly earlier yesterday. The blue has remained unchanged for over a month. This upper channel line has provided significant resistance. A break above would likely mean a much more significant retracement of the entire move down from last November highs.<br />
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A break below 1.328 would eliminate most remaining bullish alternatives, although even without the break these are very low in probability.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1glf0XqdCdQBub86eif6Acv25GRB8oc7NY4LaO8iH7ndroXb8siAmF5SE9-UdiOipTJXS3_1hX3AhcGaAHD-5IPWSY2d_HbCd5wCCcyDPQYL2_H6hMg5z_XfxonC6wT8V5e9HJcYqtSFY/s1600/EUR45.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1glf0XqdCdQBub86eif6Acv25GRB8oc7NY4LaO8iH7ndroXb8siAmF5SE9-UdiOipTJXS3_1hX3AhcGaAHD-5IPWSY2d_HbCd5wCCcyDPQYL2_H6hMg5z_XfxonC6wT8V5e9HJcYqtSFY/s320/EUR45.png" wt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-62744892790250006652010-04-20T11:40:00.000-07:002010-04-20T11:40:53.249-07:00EUR/USD diagonal wave in motion...There are a few options for the patterns lately on the short term charts, but the overall pattern has displayed 3 wave movements in either direction, which is a sign of a diagonal... the move preceding the final in a sequence.<br />
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Primary short term count favors the down trend, with an (e) wave ending this morning or with an allowance for some additional upside to make it to resistance above 1.3550 before wave (e) ends.<br />
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Alternate is still the diagonal, but had wave (d) still in progress.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpL3x5NiP5R4qZNOrl4HKlr_xojmQHKmPJQ9ZxIqHQYhHpaQgVqaigttOLweCI4_4IYpHdg7QE0zhrS1h3bEEhn6pxOvtSG-KCC-MJYvC2yJchUzXjA7vDbe3gMLM4y-Kfb2VTA2DD_ru/s1600/EUR44.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpL3x5NiP5R4qZNOrl4HKlr_xojmQHKmPJQ9ZxIqHQYhHpaQgVqaigttOLweCI4_4IYpHdg7QE0zhrS1h3bEEhn6pxOvtSG-KCC-MJYvC2yJchUzXjA7vDbe3gMLM4y-Kfb2VTA2DD_ru/s320/EUR44.png" wt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-83874300419362452832010-04-19T10:05:00.000-07:002010-04-19T10:05:17.914-07:00Monday Morning Euro UpdateFrom my post on Friday...<br />
"If we are in a triangle, wave D will probably end along the white line, and probably someone in the neighborhood of 1.34, before a 3 wave bounce in a wave E."<br />
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And here's Friday's chart with trendlines...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUXJ7IuwC9esh40mAHKQc1MR6YCgXHqwPrd-774W2E8aAz1gnaYU5YobMUHaA0uHYGBeRhu2wHLYRyX9WpE7dNRZAhCfl1t1OFnGeatocqq0By_3k1RjrpiNXtWF9zykN9WOu4SpSVgF7/s1600/EUR45.png">https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUXJ7IuwC9esh40mAHKQc1MR6YCgXHqwPrd-774W2E8aAz1gnaYU5YobMUHaA0uHYGBeRhu2wHLYRyX9WpE7dNRZAhCfl1t1OFnGeatocqq0By_3k1RjrpiNXtWF9zykN9WOu4SpSVgF7/s1600/EUR45.png</a><br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">The only addition I have made to this mornings chart is a new potential green channel, which at the moment, looks like it may be simply a slope change of the yellow on the way down to touch the white. The alternate is that it may be the beginning of wave "e" of a larger 4th or B wave triangle (<a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/ode-to-eurusd-bear.html">see my post last week for details on this count</a>). If we break through the upper green, this is how I will be viewing the action. Wave "e" could move into the 1.3550 area, which I would see as an opportunity on the short side as long as it is in 3 waves.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6HLRXN1S1UUXHY5RZOkt0D9KHNB4bBPWlSFfGzuIX5oVwmGpV6FWoP7LiA5zB1xqguQWxcHCpe_tzJ3nHHcmHHM6lpc1FHvdlWAg98V8HcywzHijfQYxY644C4cZerSLTMLKB9gbEMJYJ/s1600/EUR43.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6HLRXN1S1UUXHY5RZOkt0D9KHNB4bBPWlSFfGzuIX5oVwmGpV6FWoP7LiA5zB1xqguQWxcHCpe_tzJ3nHHcmHHM6lpc1FHvdlWAg98V8HcywzHijfQYxY644C4cZerSLTMLKB9gbEMJYJ/s320/EUR43.png" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Adherance to trends why I love trading the spot forex market, and even more, the EUR/USD.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-5983086974997805142010-04-16T11:30:00.000-07:002010-04-16T11:44:15.078-07:00Iceland, Greece, now Goldman?Fear has been back in the markets since last November, although by looking solely at the equity markets, one would hardly know it. It is only upon review of the Euro, the dollar, and other major currencies, one gets the sense that there are serious fears being acted out in the markets.<br />
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The Euro has Greece, and while the possibility of Greece's default is significant, it is much, much, much, much, much (is that too many???) more significant in what Greece may signify... a tip of the iceberg of foreign nations defaulting. Ironically, Greece has had much wider coverage in the international news, but last year, Iceland sounded the alarm. That fear alarm has driven the EUR/USD pair down significantly from it's highs up over 1.51+ to a recent low of 1.32+. That's about 13% drop in a little over 5 months! A large move in any currency.<br />
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Equities back in 2007 had Lehman Bros.... the straw that broke... well, you know how that story goes. Today's announcement about potential Goldman fraud does not surprise anyone I have talked to, but it does point to fears that so far since 2009 lows, has so far been able to be ignored. I am no expert in derivatives, or the complex financial arrangements that surround them, but I do know that noone has a solid grasp on the amount of leverage they represent in the global marketplace... and hence, the impact of a chill on these bets such that the Goldman news today may represent.<br />
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I digress though... as a non-expert on all things Goldman, and merely an Elliott wave analyst and part time trader, I will leave the deep dive into such matters to those with more experience. I point these relationships out... that between Iceland, Greece = Euro, and Goldman = Equities to merely show that fear, the everpresent necessity of a bear market, does not show its ferocity all at once, at the same time, in the same marketplace. It has peaks and valleys. This is the root of a grand supercycle bear market elliott wave. The valley of the absence of fear in the equity markets may have just passed.<br />
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Binve has a great post on elliott wave counts (short and long term) in the equity markets. I highly recommend checking <a href="http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/i-can-get-hell-of-good-look-at-t-bone.html">his latest post out</a>. He has had a minority view that the latest wave up (since Feb) was NOT impulsive (which I had agreed with)...<br />
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As far as EUR/USD action, the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyZNE6x4nYprZb1hGGs2hEeEB6BSAKwBHtYHc6pPKddmZpLK77SYDF8slfFxNY4DFygOX1Huu0LXuTIhzaVXHRHYpHL2poJUe4jMbo8F7zNpJR6ZcsELSs-zvGBrcN9_CZl2q9Zg8GkSJn/s1600/EUR39.png">bearish triangle or ending diagona</a>l counts of late are still in effect. No need to change things here. The short term picture appears as if a small degree 5 waver has or is near to ending, which may mean a partial retracement of the move down from the upper blue trendline.<br />
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I thought I would show the various trendlines that may be in effect that are very solid tools at finding support and resistance levels.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUXJ7IuwC9esh40mAHKQc1MR6YCgXHqwPrd-774W2E8aAz1gnaYU5YobMUHaA0uHYGBeRhu2wHLYRyX9WpE7dNRZAhCfl1t1OFnGeatocqq0By_3k1RjrpiNXtWF9zykN9WOu4SpSVgF7/s1600/EUR45.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUXJ7IuwC9esh40mAHKQc1MR6YCgXHqwPrd-774W2E8aAz1gnaYU5YobMUHaA0uHYGBeRhu2wHLYRyX9WpE7dNRZAhCfl1t1OFnGeatocqq0By_3k1RjrpiNXtWF9zykN9WOu4SpSVgF7/s320/EUR45.png" /></a></div><br />
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The white line represents the recently broken upper trend channel that has guided price action since last November highs. Yup, it has been broken (with a gap up that was just closed today), but I would keep an eye on this line as it is common for breaks to retest.<br />
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I have spoken a lot about the blue trendlines shown. These have a number of touchpoints on the upside, and will be a formidable barrier for the bulls to try to break.<br />
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The purple is a so far weak upward bound trend channel. It may provide some resistance on the way down, but given the non-impulsive nature of the rise off last months lows, it should not hold for long.<br />
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The yellow lines are very short term trend lines. The most speculative of the bunch, a break of the upper would tell us that a short term trend change is in effect.<br />
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The red line isn't a trend channel, but rather represents my line in the sand for the bearish scenarios. If my analysis is right, price will not move above this level.<br />
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If we are in a triangle, wave D will probably end along the white line, and probably someone in the neighborhood of 1.34, before a 3 wave bounce in a wave E.<br />
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Will indicators a bit oversold, and RSI diverging on the latest lows on the short term indicators, my guess is that profits have been taken for the week and we won't see much action until open on Sunday.<br />
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Have a great weekend!protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-23952875774945058792010-04-15T11:09:00.000-07:002010-04-15T11:09:54.810-07:00Euro's got the blues.EUR/USD declined again overnight, keepoing the bearish short term counts I have been showing on track. Most important from a technical perspective in my analysis, is that 1.3536 was taken out early this morning, negating the one bullish scenario I could come up with to explain the action off the lows of 1.326 last month (<a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/eurusd-touching-blue-line.html">see alternate count post from Monday this week</a>).<br />
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That clears the potentials a bit, and lends much more confidence to the likelihood of hitting new lows sooner rather than later, keeping me focused on the two bearish counts (<a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/ode-to-eurusd-bear.html">see most recent post yesterday</a>).<br />
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The short term picture is mixed however, with the action down from this weeks 1.369 high (touching off the blue trend channel) looking very corrective so far. I have included a micro count showing a possible impulsive wave that may be in progress, but I don't have high confidence that once this micro pattern completes, that we will head down to new lows without hitting another high above 1.369, before heading down. If we do, I continue to view this as an opportunity to go short.<br />
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With the larger patterns tipped clearly to the side of a new low in the near future, this may be one of the many cases in trading where watching and waiting may pay off with a solid entry position for the next leg down.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2KBMwW72-WNh6axsPSR8Y29RLlQfWBKNX-MarhSjx0Rsyg92zWLTxcIBFVVrtXC9ESOoLXsnBdBKdMinsyUsH5Gk1vkz_pXPSdcLjU9NFwYd9VWpe3GwdJKiO5WYZHC6DgxJ2Zxj_AXLC/s1600/EUR41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2KBMwW72-WNh6axsPSR8Y29RLlQfWBKNX-MarhSjx0Rsyg92zWLTxcIBFVVrtXC9ESOoLXsnBdBKdMinsyUsH5Gk1vkz_pXPSdcLjU9NFwYd9VWpe3GwdJKiO5WYZHC6DgxJ2Zxj_AXLC/s320/EUR41.png" wt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1874622879801593256.post-45679504459502195302010-04-14T14:33:00.000-07:002010-04-14T14:33:23.664-07:00Ode to a EUR/USD Bear...Well, my short term <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/study-of-solid-elliott-wave-trade-setup.html">great short term trade opportunity from yesterday</a> was proven wrong with a move above 1.3627. It appears we still have another move up above 1.3691 before the move we are in completes. This would break the blue upper trendline that I have been showing, and but me on the defensive to watch out for a more bullish alternative. The short term <a href="http://currencyprotechtor.blogspot.com/2010/04/eurusd-touching-blue-line.html">bullish count from last week</a> has not changed, and is still an option, but prices would have to move above 1.3816 to clench this as the top option.<br />
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So many options, what to do? Corrective waves are fun trying to identify, aren't they? Take a look at the 2 bearish counts below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyZNE6x4nYprZb1hGGs2hEeEB6BSAKwBHtYHc6pPKddmZpLK77SYDF8slfFxNY4DFygOX1Huu0LXuTIhzaVXHRHYpHL2poJUe4jMbo8F7zNpJR6ZcsELSs-zvGBrcN9_CZl2q9Zg8GkSJn/s1600/EUR39.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyZNE6x4nYprZb1hGGs2hEeEB6BSAKwBHtYHc6pPKddmZpLK77SYDF8slfFxNY4DFygOX1Huu0LXuTIhzaVXHRHYpHL2poJUe4jMbo8F7zNpJR6ZcsELSs-zvGBrcN9_CZl2q9Zg8GkSJn/s320/EUR39.png" wt="true" /></a></div><br />
What apears to be 3 wave movements in both directions, possibly since what I show as wave [iii]. Primary count is the ending diagonal wave [v] which is what I have been following, but a solid alternate is potentially a triangle wave [iv] still in motion. Triangles are common corrective patterns as the wave preceeding the final wave of a sequence. Usually either a wave 4 or a wave b. If this is indeed the pattern, it <strong>may</strong> raise the probability of a different longer term count... and [a][b][c] correction. This is the count that my good friend Binve and most of the long term dollar bears are following. If we break through 1.3266 (the low so far this year) without bouncing up in a wave e first, then the ending diagonal maintains its primary status. For now the short term direction of both the patterns is effectively the same, but I thought I would bring the pattern into your thoughts to see the most likely possibilities.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf3yzSJePPgeBt78_UuIRAP8xS4ov5Wfw7FgUsO-5THN40TMYmL4ja5zY9IQaDsI9vu0W8x2jetCH-zFBjX03IMwo3Dc7G7ArU725l5qpt12yd4EqCpfvgAsrDYdYEBk3Lql2sc3rkmIZO/s1600/EUR40.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf3yzSJePPgeBt78_UuIRAP8xS4ov5Wfw7FgUsO-5THN40TMYmL4ja5zY9IQaDsI9vu0W8x2jetCH-zFBjX03IMwo3Dc7G7ArU725l5qpt12yd4EqCpfvgAsrDYdYEBk3Lql2sc3rkmIZO/s320/EUR40.png" wt="true" /></a></div>protechtorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09874771172955998211noreply@blogger.com0